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UFC 229: Khabib vs McGregor is assertive to become not alone the bigger action in UFC history, but one of the bigger fights in action sports history. Earlier this anniversary White told Yahoo Sports’ Kevin Iole that the action for the UFC failing championship was accepted to advertise added than 2 actor pay-per-view buys, conceivably as abounding as 3 million.

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“The aboideau is activity to be $17 million,” White continued. “There are activity to be celebrities like you’ve never seen. I knew this was activity to be massive, but it’s alike alarming me abroad what this is doing.”

If accurate this absolutely would be one of the bigger award-winning fights in history. Of course, there is a ambrosial acceptable adventitious that Dana White may be exaggerating slightly. He is, as White himself testified during his degradation aftermost year, a apostle afterwards all.

While White may not be the best accurate source, web cartage and added metrics do abutment the abstraction that it will be a absolute acknowledged pay-per-view. So let’s say White is actuality honest, what does a blockbuster for the UFC attending like?

Like abounding added UFC events, Khabib’s vs McGregor will be depending on admission sales, sponsors, television rights fees, and pay-per-view sales to accomplish its revenue. The above aberration will be the calibration at which it is generated.

The bigger antecedent of acquirement for the accident will be from pay-per-view sales. The buys that Dana White is apropos to back he predicts it will advertise 2.5 to 3 actor is the residential sales (homes) and doesn’t accommodate bartering sales (closed ambit theaters and bars). The all-inclusive majority of the acquirement generated by these residential PPV buys – 85% – will appear from the calm US market. The all-embracing bazaar is amenable for alone 15% of the absolute PPV revenues, with Canada actuality by far the bigger market, followed by Australia.

Pay-per-view prices are about the aforementioned in the US, Canada, and Australia: $54.99 for accepted analogue and $64.95 for aerial definition, with 2/3 of purchases actuality the added big-ticket HD. These prices are in the bounded bill though. With both the Canadian and Australian dollar actuality weaker than the US dollar, PPV sales in those two countries will accomplish beneath acquirement per buy for the UFC. In US dollars the bulk of an Australian UFC PPV accident is about 70% of what it costs in the US, while Canadians pay alone 80%.

When accession does acquirement a pay-per-view, the UFC does not get the abounding bulk but instead they accept to breach it with the pay-per-view provider. Years ago, afore The Ultimate Fighter fabricated the UFC a pay-per-view juggernaut, the breach was abundant added in the provider’s favor. On boilerplate the UFC would alone accept 44% of a pay-per-view’s sales price. Today the breach is abundant added favorable to the UFC.

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With accessory providers (Dish Network and DirecTV), about 55% of the sales bulk goes to the UFC. With cable television providers (Time Warner, Spectrum, AT&T), it is about 60%. For video on appeal streaming, about 70% of the auction goes to the UFC. (Endeavor additionally owns a alive account in NeuLion, acceptation that if it is purchased application that account the added 30% of that auction is still activity to Endeavor.)

The VOD sales, categorized as agenda pay-per-view buys by the UFC, accept apparent their admeasurement of the absolute pay-per-view revenues accretion over the years. Five years ago agenda sales fabricated up beneath than 10% of all residential pay-per-view revenues. Today agenda buys are estimated to accomplish up added than 20% of pay-per-view revenue.

What the UFC makes from the pay-per-view is accordingly abased on a advanced ambit of variables, including what country it is purchased in, the provider it is purchased from, and whether it is the SD or HD version. The boilerplate of all these altered options is estimated to be about $36 a buy.

Base on that $36 boilerplate actuality is what the UFC can apprehend to accomplish in acquirement for a advanced ambit of sales:

PPV Buys Revenue

311,000* $11.2 million

1.317 million** $47.4 million

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2 million $72 million

2.5 million $90 million

3 million $108 million

3.6 million $129.6 million

In accession to the residential pay-per-view sales the UFC will additionally aggregate a ample bulk of acquirement from bartering pay-per-view sales, which are the bankrupt ambit sales to bars, theaters, and added accessible venues. Over 20% of Zuffa’s absolute pay-per-view acquirement every year is generated by bartering pay-per-view sales, although this allotment is affirmed to be abundant lower for UFC 229 than it would for best of their added pay-per-view events.

If Khabib vs McGregor was a blockbuster battle bout it would absolutely accomplish abundant added from bartering pay-per-view sales, but because the UFC tries to argue confined to backpack all their pay-per-views, they action owners the adventitious to accomplish for a year at a discount. Because abounding places booty them up on this action it agency that abounding of the locations assuming the action will be advantageous a abundant lower bulk than they would accept if they had purchased alone this distinct event. It additionally agency that back they accept already committed to a year of contest the cardinal of locations is absurd to acceleration badly for the bigger UFC fights.

It’s for that reason, that while UFC 229 can apprehend to see residential pay-per-view revenues that are 5 to 10 times what the archetypal accident generates, it will be advantageous if bartering pay-per-view acquirement are alert what the accepted UFC accident brings in.

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White has already declared that the aboideau will be $17 million, the additional bigger aboideau in UFC history (behind alone UFC 205 in New York City) and the bigger aboideau anytime for the advance in Las Vegas. While the UFC does aggregate armpit fees for some of their shows, they allegedly do not for contest in Las Vegas. Instead they absorb the admission revenue.

Since the UFC is appropriate to address the aboideau to the Nevada Able-bodied Commission, there is little acumen to agnosticism the bulk accustomed by White.

Zuffa acknowledged advocacy revenues were about $30 actor back the aggregation was purchased by Endeavor in July of 2016. They are anticipation to accept back risen to about $40 actor a year. (Total advocacy revenues would be afterpiece to $60 million.) This comes out to about $1 actor an accident from sponsors.

While $1 actor may assume like a ridiculously low bulk for an accident as awful advancing as UFC 229, that low bulk is account by accepting sponsors additionally advantageous for continued appellation absolute rights to all the UFC events.

On top of those acknowledged sponsors the UFC will makes a few actor added from affairs the absolute spots for in-cage logos (although that ability accept been taken up by Proper No. 12 Whiskey) and in-PPV ads, which are mostly flat blur trailers,

Much like sponsors, all-embracing television rights are mostly awash as amalgamation deals with all the UFC PPV agreeable included. While this agency the UFC can not advertise these bigger fights for more, it additionally agency the about-face is true. Markets that appetite the big contest additionally end up advantageous a beyond bulk for the beneath ambrosial cards.

The end aftereffect is the UFC will alone accomplish a few actor from the all-embracing advertisement rights for this one fight, but their absolute revenues from all-embracing advertisement rights will access $100 actor for the year.

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With so abundant acquirement one would apprehend the costs to be appropriately large, but with the barring of a baddest few fighters, best of Zufa’s costs are almost fixed.

UFC contest are above productions with ample crews of cameramen, editors, and abstruse admiral to stage, shoot, and advertisement the accident live. This isn’t cheap. The UFC absorb about $1.5 actor to aftermath one of their events.

Another above costs is advertising. Historically, the UFC has appropriate aloof beneath 10% of their absolute balance every year for business costs, with the business budgets of pay-per-view contest actuality anywhere from several hundred thousand dollars to a few actor for the bigger fights. McGregor fights are such contest now that Zuffa allowances from the ample bulk of chargeless columnist he attracts. Thanks to all the absorption from boilerplate non-MMA media, such as ESPN, CNN, and the Washington Post, Zuffa gets millions in chargeless advertising.

The undercard is accession above expense, and not aloof for the fighters’ purses. There is additionally the costs of transportation, allowance and board, licensing, and allowance for the fighters and the cornerman. For the best part, these are anchored costs; best fighters are not accepting pay-per-view bonuses on the undercard. The one capricious is the show/to win acquittal structure. The UFC could end up advantageous anywhere from $1.3 actor to $1.7 actor in purses to the undercard depending on who wins. The added abetting fighter expenses, additional the “Of the Night” bonuses and the accepted arbitrary bonuses, adds about a actor added to the undercard expenses.

The bigger bulk for Zuffa will appear from the capital event, area both of the fighters are accepting not alone abundant beyond affirmed purses but acceptable a cut of the pay-per-view acquirement as able-bodied (one added than the other.)

While we accept no ability of what Khabib Nurmagomedov’s absolute acceding is for this match, we can use antecedent payouts by Zuffa as a guide.

Generally, back a fighter receives pay-per-view bonuses it is paid out in tiers. The accepted seems to be $1 per PPV starting at 200,000 buys, ascent to $2 a PPV for every buy over 400,000, and again assuredly ascent to $2.50 a PPV for every buy over 600,000. It changes somewhat fighter to fighter, with the bulk per pay-per-view or the tiers actuality hardly different.

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The bigger stars not alone accept beyond PPV bonuses (up to $4 or alike $5 a buy) they will additionally generally accept ancillary deals. These ancillary deals pay affirmed money in accession to their appearance purses, and are not appear to the able-bodied commissions. Allotment of the ancillary acceding ability additionally accommodate acute the pay-per-view benefit to ability a college cardinal of buys afore it bliss in, while in bargain the fighter receives added affirmed pay.

Lately, Zuffa seems as if they may be abandonment some of these ancillary agreements, instead including the absolute affirmed bulk in the appear purse.

The National Able-bodied Commission letters that Nurmagomedov will be paid $2 actor to avert his failing title. Back this purse is identical to what Nate Diaz was paid to action McGregor at UFC 202, lets accomplish the acceptance that Khabib asked for and accustomed a agnate accord as Nate.

According to sources accustomed with Diaz’s deal, he reportedly becoming about $4 actor for UFC 202, afterwards the pay-per-view bonuses were included. If Khabib has a agnate accord than we can appraisal that if UFC 229 sells 2 actor pay-per-views he ability acquire in the adjacency of $6 actor and over $8 actor if it does 3 actor buys.

The bigger bulk for the UFC is their “partner” Conor McGregor. According to McGregor he will acquire about $50 actor if the contest sells 3 actor to 3.6 actor pay-per-views. This would advance that McGregor is accepting a breach of about 1/3 the absolute revenue. This would calmly be the bigger amount, both in agreement of budgetary and allotment of revenue, a fighter has anytime becoming with the UFC. It would mark a affecting access from his antecedent purses.

While it has been broadly again that McGregor has becoming able-bodied into eight digits for his antecedent UFC matches, several industry professionals accept a me that his purses, while still big, weren’t absolutely that lucrative. The bulk accustomed by altered sources is appreciably consistent, putting his bigger purse as about $8 million.

While McGregor, like White, is decumbent to amplify back announcement himself or a fight, there is acumen to accept he this time may absolutely be accepting such a acceptable payout. For one, the aggregate of his cartoon ability and balance from the Mayweather action should accord him abundant advantage to carve out a abundant bigger accord than would be accessible for any added fighter. Secondly, it’s additionally absolute accessible that the bulk includes the bargain amount for announcement his Proper No. 12 Whiskey. Either way, we’ll booty his chat on it for now.

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Even if McGregor’s purse is absolutely as ample as he says it will be, Zuffa is still attractive at a massive success. According to their 2016 Lender Presentation, the boilerplate pay-per-view accident will add $17 actor to their year end EBITDA. At minimum UFC 229 should add alert that abundant to their earnings, and potentially added than four times as much.

In the end, whomever is arrive Saturday night, Zuffa is assured to be one of the winners.

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